The ACC season continues for Clemson tomorrow, as the Tigers hit the road to take on the Louisville Cardinals - trying to move to 7-0 on the year.

And while it may seem like just another day at the ballpark for Dabo Swinney and his squad, Louisville is, quietly, one of the more interesting teams in the conference - and will no doubt be looking at this game as a litmus test for their program’s new and promising direction.

Ready to hear more? Then folks… let’s get into it…

(3)Clemson at Louisville

Saturday, October 19 | 12:00PM EST
Cardinal Stadium
TV: ABC
ESPN Spread: Clemson -24

ABOUT THE LOUISVILLE CARDINALS

• 4-2 (2-1), 57th in the SP+
• Rebuilding project under head coach Scott Satterfield has been ahead of schedule, and the program has taken a step up past where Bobby Petrino had it a year ago
• Offense is using a two-QB system and has found tons of success with it, hanging big points on Boston College and Wake Forest each of the last two games
• Defense is where the primary issues with this team lie - as they haven’t been able to stop anyone… anywhere

It’s hard to overstate the dire straits this Louisville program found itself in when 2018 drew to a close: a 2-10 record, along with a toxic team culture (apparently, the players didn’t even know where head coach Bobby Petrino’s office was) led to Petrino’s ousting - and a necessary reset followed heading into 2019.

Enter Scott Satterfield, 2018’s Sun Belt Coach of the Year at Appalachian State, where he amassed a nearly 75% winning percentage during his five seasons with the Mountaineers - including three straight bowl victories in 2015, 2016, and 2017. And, his final season was certainly a fantastic way to go out: 10-2 regular season (including a near-upset of Penn State in week 1), 29th in the S&P+, and a defense that was one of the absolute best in the nation.

But Louisville was a different beast from the machine he had built in Appalachian State, and even with his pedigree, turning this team around completely would take time, right?

… wrong… apparently.

Louisville is currently sitting at 4-2, with two conference wins and plenty more winnable games on the horizon. Are they vying for an ACC title this season? No. But are they way ahead of schedule in the rebuild process? Yes… yes they are.

Offensive Breakdown

Strangely, the offense is the unit that’s gone through the most personnel overhaul this season - and yet, it has been the bedrock on which this team has built its success. The Cardinals are 20th in the SP+ offensively, 28th in the FEI - and have scored 41 and 62 points over the last two weeks against Boston College and Wake Forest, respectively.

Neither the Eagles nor the Demon Deacons have a defense to write home about, of course. But Louisville ranked 102nd in offensive SP+ a year ago, and landed just 122nd in points per game, so doing this against anyone is surprising for the Cardinals.

Offensively it begins with their two QBs - Malik Cunningham and Evan Conley. The two QBs have found their way to sharing the role under center after Jawon Pass - assumed to be the starter heading into the season - went down with a foot injury in week two, and they’ve been perfect compliments for each other - leading to the country’s 16th ranked offense when it comes to yards per game.

Cunningham will hurt you with his feet, while Conley is a much more traditional passer who came with Satterfield from Appalachian State - and together, they’ve hung over 1,500 yards on ACC opponents over the last three weeks (with Cunningham running for 226 yards and three TDs this season on 47 attempts).

The offense has also benefited from the emergence of RB Javian Hawkins, who has been fantastic in his first year of college ball. He’s run for 622 yards and three touchdowns this season, and his speed and elusiveness has brought an explosiveness to the running game that the Tigers must account for.

Defensive Breakdown

Satterfield built a defensive juggernaut with the Mountaineers, who ranked 27th, 24th, and 20th in each of his last three seasons there. But judging by the early returns this season, it’s going to be a while before his guys at Louisville reach such a level.

The Cardinals are currently 91st in defensive SP+, 88th in the FEI, and are giving up 439 yards per game (102nd). That’s bad news when you have Clemson’s offense coming to town.

In terms of bright spots, the linebacking core stands out as a positive - though they’ll be without Dorian Etheridge in the first half, as he’s serving a suspension for targeting. Other than Etheridge, Rodjay Burns has excelled during his first season playing LB with 40 tackles, six for a loss, and two sacks, while CJ Avery has added 2.5 and one sack of his own.

Unfortunately, everything else just feels like a mess for Louisville defensively. The front line ranks 86th in line yards allowed, 93rd in opportunity rate allowed, and 84th in sack rate - while the secondary ranks 105th in passing yards allowed per game.

Which brings us to…

Key for the Tigers

Air it out, and assume a high scoring affair

Let me make one thing clear, as good as the Louisville offense has looked, they haven’t seen anything like this Clemson defense.

But strange things happen when a team on a roll is playing a big time match-up at home, so if I’m Clemson, my offensive game plan is one that scores fast straight out of the gate. Trevor Lawrence should have all kinds of time in the pocket, and Clemson’s wide receivers should be able to make a living catching those 15-20 yard passes throughout the day against this secondary.

If they go too slow, however, and Louisville is able to find momentum offensively - then all of the sudden Clemson could find itself in a bit of a shootout on the road. Therefore, best try to put up points early and end this one before it can start.

What Will Happen

I anticipate that in a largely rebuilding ACC, it won’t be long before this match-up becomes one to circle for Clemson fans. Fortunately for the Tigers, that’s not this season - as Clemson will just run through this defense on their way to decisive win. The Louisville offense will get their points in, but it won’t be anywhere close to enough to make this one interesting.

Tigers roll, folks. Enjoy the game!

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